Institute of Geography

Group Portrait

Dr. Monika Feldmann

PostDoc

Climate Impact

E-Mail
monika.feldmann@unibe.ch
Office
508b
Postal Address
University of Bern
Institute of Geography
Climate Impacts
Hallerstrasse 12
CH-3012 Bern

Research Focus

Severe convective storms
  • Large scale connections
  • Predictability
  • Convective environments in AI-forecasts
  • Climate change trends

Projects

Severe convective outbreaks and the large-scale
Outbreaks of severe convection in central Europe are often marked by severe weather impacts over a widespread area. Being associated with multiple hazards, such as flash flooding, significant hail, severe straight-line winds, and intense lightning activity, these events are of considerable interest to society. Convective outbreaks are often associated with a characteristic synoptic situation, hallmarked by southwesterly flow in the mid-troposphere. We investigate the relation between large-scale meteorological features and widespread convection to understand the situations when high-impact convective outbreaks occur. Understanding the large-scale situation is key to improving the predictability of severe convective outbreaks.
 

Subseasonal predictability of severe convective outbreaks
There is a lack of current knowledge on how well subseasonal forecasts perform for convective outbreaks. Although the small-scale convective activity cannot be predicted far in advance, the mesoscale convective environment and large-scale flow patterns associated with these events may be possible to predict at longer lead times of days to weeks. 
Given the current lack of subseasonal predictions for convection in central Europe, this project targets the improvement of our understanding of longer-term processes leading to the build-up of severe convective environments.
 

Convective environments in AI-based forecasts
A new generation of purely AI-based weather prediction models was released over the last year. Thus far they remain untested for convective parameters, which rely on the accuracy of the thermodynamic and fluid-dynamic vertical profile. We evaluate the performance of various AI models for convective instability and wind shear in comparison to a numerical weather prediction model.

Publications

Jump to: 2024 | 2023

2024

Feldmann, Monika; Beucler, Tom; Gomez, Milton; Martius, Olivia (17 June 2024). Lightning-Fast Thunderstorm Warnings: Predicting Severe Convective Environments with Global Neural Weather Models (arXiv). Cornell University

Feldmann, Monika; Poulain-Auzeau, Louis; Gomez, Milton; Beucler, Tom; Martius, Olivia (22 May 2024). Convective environments in AI-models - What have AI-models learned about atmospheric profiles? In: EGU General Assembly 2024. Copernicus Publications 10.5194/egusphere-egu24-5373

Woolnough, S. J.; Vitart, F.; Robertson, A. W.; Coelho, C. A. S.; Lee, R.; Lin, H.; Kumar, A.; Stan, C.; Balmaseda, M.; Caltabiano, N.; Yamaguchi, M.; Afargan-Gerstman, H.; Boult, V. L.; De Andrade, F. M.; Büeler, D.; Carreric, A.; Campos Diaz, D. A.; Day, J.; Dorrington, J.; Feldmann, M.; ... (2024). Celebrating 10 Years of the Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project and Looking to the Future. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 105(3), E521-E526. American Meteorological Society 10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0323.1

Feldmann, Monika; Domeisen, Daniela I.V.; Martius, Olivia (1 March 2024). Investigating the predictability link between heatwaves and severe convective outbreaks in Europe (Unpublished). In: 4th European Hail Workshop. Karslruhe. 05-07.03.2024.

Feldmann, Monika; Poulain-Auzéau, Louis; Gomez, Milton; Beucler, Tom; Martius, Olivia (1 March 2024). Convective environments in AI-models – What have Panguweather, Graphcast and Fourcastnet learned about atmospheric profiles? (Unpublished). In: 4th European Hail Workshop. Karslruhe. 05-07.03.2024.

Feldmann, Monika; Rotunno, Richard; Germann, Urs; Berne, Alexis (2024). Supercell thunderstorms in complex topography - how mountain valleys with lakes can increase occurrence frequency. Monthly Weather Review, 152(2), pp. 471-489. American Meteorological Society 10.1175/MWR-D-22-0350.1

Sarhadi, Ali; Rousseau-Rizzi, Raphaël; Mandli, Kyle; Neal, Jeffrey; Wiper, Michael P.; Feldmann, Monika; Emanuel, Kerry (2024). Climate Change Contributions to Increasing Compound Flooding Risk in New York City. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 105(2), E337-E356. American Meteorological Society 10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0177.1

2023

Feldmann, Monika; Domeisen, Daniela V.; Martius, Olivia (July 2023). Investigating the predictability of severe convective outbreaks in Central Europe (Unpublished). In: WWRP/WCRP S2S Summit 2023. Reading. 3-7 July 2023.

Feldmann, Monika; Rotunno, Richard; Germann, Urs; Berne, Alexis (May 2023). Supercell thunderstorms in complex topography - how lakes in mountain valleys can increase occurrence frequency. In: 11th European Conference on Severe Storms. Bucharest. 8–12 May 2023. 10.5194/ecss2023-51